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The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declined a call from Vice President Kamala Harris regarding the approach of Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm poised to impact Florida. DeSantis later appeared on Fox News, where he clarified his stance by stating that Harris had not reached out during previous storms, suggesting that her current attempt to communicate was motivated by political optics rather than genuine concern or operational necessity.

Analysis:

1. Political Motives: Harris's sudden interest in Florida's hurricane situation is an attempt to appear proactive in crisis management, especially if there's a perceived lack of prior engagement. This move is an effort to score political points rather than a sincere attempt at collaboration for disaster response.

2. Precedent of Non-Engagement: DeSantis pointing out that Harris never reached out during previous storms serves to underscore his point that her current outreach is out of character and thus politically motivated.

3. Crisis Management as Political Capital: Many Americans appreciate DeSantis' attempt to depoliticize the hurricane response by refusing to engage in what they could see as a politically charged interaction.

4. Public Perception: This incident will reinforce DeSantis' image as a no-nonsense leader who prioritizes effective governance over political correctness or federal entanglement, especially when such interactions are perceived as insincere or strategically timed.

Vice President Kamala Harris appeared on "60 Minutes" in an interview aired on the evening of October 7, 2024, where she failed to deliver clear, substantive answers, instead relying heavily on clichéd talking points. This interview was anticipated to be a platform for Harris to clarify her stances on various policies but instead resulted in another missed opportunity for democrats.

Analysis:

1. Lack of Substance: Americans often criticize Democratic politicians for what they perceive as a lack of depth in policy discussions. In this interview, Harris's reliance on general statements about unity, building consensus, and attacking Donald Trump without offering detailed policy insights can be seen as reinforcing this stereotype. This approach is an obvious avoidance strategy, emphasizing that Harris does not have a grasp of the policy details or prefers not to engage with them publicly to avoid scrutiny.

2. Political Clichés Over Policy: The use of phrases like "building consensus" and "strengthening the middle class" without concrete examples or plans is often labeled as political boilerplate. This would be interpreted as Harris falling back on safe, rehearsed lines instead of engaging with the real economic and social issues at hand, thereby missing an opportunity to demonstrate leadership or innovative thinking.

3. Attack on Trump as a Deflection: Mentioning Trump's lack of plans, as per her X post, is a deflection tactic. Instead of focusing on her and President Biden's failures or plans, Harris diverts attention to Trump. This strategy is an admission that her own policies cannot stand on their merit or that she prefers to engage in opposition politics rather than constructive policy discussion.

4. Public Perception and Media Interaction: The American people see right through her BS.

The Oracle, by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

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Chinese state-sponsored hackers have reportedly breached the systems of major U.S. telecommunications companies, gaining access to networks that facilitate court-authorized wiretaps. This incident has compromised sensitive communications infrastructure, potentially affecting national security and privacy. Many Americans are linking the vulnerability of these systems to the broader cybersecurity policies under the current Democrat administration, arguing that these policies have failed to protect critical U.S. infrastructure from foreign cyber threats.

Analysis:

• Security Failures: This breach underscores the failures of current Democrat-led cybersecurity policies. There's an argument that the emphasis on expanding government and digital surveillance capabilities has not been matched with adequate investment in cybersecurity defenses. This incident serves as a critique of the notion that government can protect sensitive data while expanding its digital footprint without corresponding security enhancements.

• National Security: This breach not only represents a failure to safeguard judicial processes but also poses a significant threat to national security. The ability of foreign entities to access wiretap systems could compromise ongoing investigations, national security operations, and give adversaries insights into U.S. intelligence methods. This incident could be used to push for stronger, more aggressive cybersecurity measures and possibly for less reliance on digital systems that can be exploited.

• Economic and Political Implications: The breach affecting major telecom giants could be seen as an economic attack, potentially weakening U.S. companies' competitive edges and affecting jobs. Politically, conservatives might use this event to argue for stricter regulations on tech imports from China, enhanced scrutiny of foreign investments in tech sectors, and a general tougher stance on China, which aligns with conservative calls for a more hawkish foreign policy approach.

• Blame on Democrat Policies: Under Democratic leadership, there has been an overemphasis on diplomatic engagements and cyber "norms" rather than on robust cyber defense mechanisms. The narrative might focus on how policies perceived as soft on cyber warfare, or too focused on domestic surveillance over national defense, have left the U.S. vulnerable. This event could fuel calls for a policy shift towards more aggressive cyber defense strategies, potentially including preemptive cyber actions against known threats.

• Call for Accountability: There might be a push for investigations into why these systems were vulnerable and how policies can be reformed. Americans could demand accountability from both the telecom companies and the governmental bodies overseeing cybersecurity, potentially leading to legislative changes aimed at bolstering cyber defenses and oversight.

The Oracle, by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

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In Minnesota, authorities are grappling with a crime wave attributed to a sophisticated South American crime ring, which has reportedly robbed over 60 homes, making off with millions in valuables without a single arrest. This surge in crime is linked to the obvious open border policies under the Biden administration, specifically criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris for her previous stances on immigration enforcement.

Analysis:

1. Border Policy Critique: The Biden administration's immigration policies, characterized as open border policies, have facilitated the entry and operation of foreign criminal elements within the U.S. They point to the lack of arrests as evidence of insufficient border control and a failure in immigration enforcement, which they believe emboldens such criminal groups.

2. Criminal Justice Policies: There's a broader critique of Democratic policies on crime and justice. Many often assert that progressive policies lead to softer approaches on crime, including policies that might limit law enforcement's ability to detain and deport criminal immigrants. This incident is used to underscore their argument that these policies result in increased domestic crime rates.

3. Kamala Harris's Record: Harris's past statements and actions as Attorney General and Senator, particularly her support for illegal immigration and critiques of ICE, are highlighted by conservatives as contributing to an environment where crime from undocumented immigrants can flourish.

4. Economic and Social Impact: Theres a very clear economic drain and social disruption caused by such crimes, emphasizing that law-abiding citizens are paying the price for what they see as misguided policies.

5. Political Accountability: This incident serves as a rallying cry for stronger immigration laws and enforcement, which is a consistent theme in conservative politics.

Recent polls in Pennsylvania indicate that former President Donald Trump has achieved an unprecedented lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with his odds of winning the state now ahead by 12%. This surge in support underscores Trump's enduring appeal in this crucial battleground state.

Analysis:

1. Voter Sentiment and Economic Issues:

   • This lead can be attributed to voter dissatisfaction with current economic policies under the Democratic administration. Pennsylvania voters, particularly in areas outside of urban centers like Philadelphia, are feeling the pinch of inflation and economic policies they perceive as detrimental. Trump's focus on economic strength, job creation, and his track record will resonate strongly with these voters, who see him as a return to prosperity.

2. Energy and Industry Support:

   • Pennsylvania's significant involvement in energy sectors like natural gas and coal plays well into Trump's pro-energy industry stance. His promise to bolster these industries, versus what his supporters see as Harris's and Democrats' restrictive environmental policies, could be widening his lead among workers and communities dependent on these sectors.

3. Cultural and Social Alignment:

   • Trump's messages on law and order, conservative values, and criticism of 'woke' culture resonate with many in Pennsylvania who feel alienated by the progressive shifts in the Democratic Party.

4. Campaign Strategy and Presence:

   • Trump's aggressive campaign strategy in Pennsylvania, including frequent rallies and direct appeals to his voter base is very effective. His ability to connect with the crowd, using straightforward and common sense points, helps keep his base energized and could be expanding his support.

5. Historical Context and Swing State Dynamics:

   • Pennsylvania, as a swing state, has a history of flipping. Trump's win in 2016 was pivotal, and his current lead might reflect a continuing trend where voters are looking for change or a return to policies they believe worked better for them.

The Oracle, by Polymarket

The Oracle by Polymarket is news with skin in the game. This weekly newsletter gives you insights on global headlines from the world’s largest prediction market, powered by traders around the world with millions of dollars on the line. Every week, we break down how the market is interpreting major events—whether it’s politics, culture, or global news. See into the future with real-time odds from traders around the world who are betting on the future.

Subscribe to The Oracle